Greenfield state of the market
Supply
- 70/30 policy has underpinned the value of short supply GAIC land
- Zoned land supply is down to 12 years and unzoned 8 years
- UIDA is pushing for new supply for the South East region
- Demand remains high for industrial land (recent Morewell)
- Melbourne has the lowest median home price to income ratio of 7:1 and least ‘physical’ land supply constraints (advantages)
- Stakeholder interests in PSPs has lowered net developable land in some cases to 50% (e.g. Melton East). At current land prices, 65% is needed to make projects viable
- Skilled immigration for Victoria remains critical to increasing housing construction. Net migration loss (e.g. to Qld) is hurting
Demand
- Melbourne is not achieving 2017-19 net migration rates, which contributed to higher GAIC land prices
- SMSF tax changes will hurt investor demand
- No increase in FHB grants since 2013. This may be permanent
- Current stock to sale ratio is high at 5:1 (Syd 3:1, SEQ 2:1) and clearance rates low at 80% (Syd 108%, SEQ 96%)
- Melbourne has 5 years net falling established house prices, which is suppressing greenfield lot prices (only matching inflation)
- Research4 (R4) established house to land price ratio is now 51%, compared to a ‘fair value’ ceiling of 46%
- Current $426,000 lot price should be closer to $390,000 (R4)
Barriers
- Construction costs and taxes means house and land product/apartments can no longer stay below $600,000, which is suited to FHB borrowing power
Election platorm
- Guarantee land supply, fast-track approvals, invest in community infrastructure, support innovation for cosntruction
UDIA greenfield breakfast
- 70/30 isn’t working and is fueling GAIC land prices
- Greenfield land supply is falling behind target
- PSP yield and delvery times need to lift
- Skilled immigration to Victoria is critical
- Cost to borrowing is restricting FHB demand
- Despite the barriers, Melbourne holds a compeitive advantage
- Key initiatives
- Fast track enabling infrastructure and PSPs
- Automatic approval after 30 days
- Adjust the tax settings
- Loosen the rules for negotiated outcomes
State Election Platform
- #1 Put housing first with more land supply and faster PSPs/approvals
- #2 Reform the tax system, restore investor confidence, supercharge home building
- #3 Prioritise infrastructure invesment in the fastest growing communities
- #4 Remove industry roadblocks and support a skilled home building workforce
victorian government
Amendement VC319 to expand the number of dwellings eligble for apprvoal in 10-business days from 2 to 4 became effective on 22 of October. The pathway is available for all residential zones except for the Low Density Residential Zone. Applications must meet all the deemed-to-comply Townhouse and Low Rise Code Standards in Clause 55.
one nation election pledges
Scrap SRL East saving $5.5 billion and the First Nations People treaty.
Experts warn that Pauline Hanson won’t do much to help housing affordability potentially making the shortage worse.
Pledges to reduce land tax, increase the threshold where small businesses become liable for payroll tax and abolish taxes on stamp duty insurance, are forecast to cost $2.35 billion in tax revenue this year and $10 billion in forward estimates. ONP wants to build three new magistrates courts and hire 30 magistrates to tackle youth crime.
Treasury estimates of ONP result in a $4 billion hole. Current polls have ONP with 20-25% support in Victoria. ONP has also recently announced and its Federal housing GST and negative gearing policies.
- Scrap Victorian Labor initiatives SRL East, First Nations Treaty
- Increase the small business payroll tax threshold
- Hire 30 new magistrates
Federal
- Introduce a 5-year moratorium on charging GST on building materials
- Removing NCC min. Livable Housing Standards
- Restore 50% CGT discount
- Allow investors to negatively gear up to 2 homes
hia election advocacy 2026
Victoria is perceived as the least competitive jurisdiction in Australia to do business with property taxes, excessive regulations, and slow planning approvals suppressing housing supply. Home building activity remains near decade-lows HIA members are working hard to adapt to changing regulations, shifting consumer tastes, new products and technologies, and new ways of building that are safe, compliant and efficient. Housing is key to our economy and underpins Victoria’s highly regarded ‘place to live’ credentials. It’s a $40 billion industry employing 300,000+ Victorians and over 7% of Gross State Product.
HIA election imperatives
- #1 Reduce the regulatory burdern on builders
- #2 Lower property taxes and remove barriers to invest
- #3 Strengthen the construction workforce
- #4 Make more land available to increase housing supply
- #5 Simplify and fast-tracking planning decisions
- #6 Expand housing choice
Casey Developer Newsletter
Hoping the Minister will approve the Cardinia Creek South Part 2 and Casey Fields South Employment and Devon Meadows Precinct Structure Plans before the caretaker period.
Launched Building a Better Casey, an advocacy campaign to secure funding, policy commitments and government investment highlighting priority projects and initiatives that are essential to support the growing population, providing a clear framework to guide this. Have accepted funding commitments: Labour – $350M duplicate Hallam Rd, $130M widening Evans Rd. Liberal – $607M Thompson Rd upgrade and extension in Clyde North and Officer South. Has started implementing Vic Gov. Planning Reforms. Continues to advocate for Telecommunications Conectivity.
2025/26 Council collected $81.46M in development contributions, which was approximately $10.8M more than the previous financial year and a new record.
Land Tax
More than 250,000 Victorians with a land tax liability who own land valued between $50,000 – $300,000 (1 in 10 Victorians). 90% have 1 taxable property. More than 86,000 are in their 40s or younger.
Only 2% pay land tax on 3 or more taxable properties. Most land tax payers are in outer-suburban and regional Victoria.
“Thousands are in their 40s or younger and the median age is around 53 – ages where most people are still paying mortgages.” – Colin Brooks
Population
Melbourne – 9,111
Casey – 8,311
Boroondara – 7,668
Wyndham – 7,592
Greater Geelong – 7,263
Whittlesea – 6,969
Monash – 6,458
Hume – 6,413
Whitehorse – 5,945
Mornington Peninsula – 5,529
6 october 2026
Amongst 40 worst reads since Westpac’s monthly survey began in 1970’s, already had two in this category this year (April & June) and 8 recorded in 2022–23. Marking the worst period of extremely weak sentiment since recession in early 1990s.
- Pessimists outnumber optimists in 102/106 sub-groups.
- ‘Family finances vs a year ago’ – dropped 8% to 66.9, on par with April
- ‘Economy, next 12 months’ – down 1.6% to 78.3
- ‘Economy, next 5 years’ – down 0.4% to 85.5
- ‘Time to buy a major item’ – fell 7.1% to 83
- Unemployment Expectations Index – 1.9% higher to 142.1
- ‘Time to buy a dwelling’ – rose 3.4% to 88.4, despite RBA rate hike
- House prices over the next year – over 31% expecting more declines, 18% expecting no change, and 46% expecting a rise
- Consumer Sentiment index drops 4.7% to 80.4 from 84.4 in September
- Very sharp pullback after RBA rate hike
- Finances under pressure due to high fuel prices and interest rates
- Over 80% of consumers expect mortgage rates to rise over the next year
- Growing unease about the outlook for jobs